Prediction/Analysis

Why Bitcoin’s Bullish ‘Retests’ Could Drive New Highs

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While bitcoin’s current price is well below its historic all-time peak, the market cap of the largest cryptocurrency is currently at $17 billion. year.

The “retest“So far it’s held above a key level, and compared to past peaks in the crypto market, this time almost certainly looks to be different. It remains to be seen if the repeating pattern produces different results, but one result this time around would suggest that there has been a rally to new heights.

The four most beloved words are “This time it’s Different”

According to Sir John TempletonThe most dangerous way to invest is to think that “this time is different”. Markets are cyclical, and price action often displays fractal-like patterns. Bitcoin itself seems to cycle every four years, based on its built-in issuance mechanism of halving.

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Despite the predictability of the cycle, it can take unexpected turns. The 2014-2015 bear market had a deep, rounded structure that led to a dramatic rise in 2017 and high in 2015. A failed retest resulted in lower highs, and a descending triangle that finally collapsed.

 Source:| Source: TradingView.com - BTCUSD

In 2019, Bitcoin recovered from the bear market’s lowest point and started a new era of cryptocurrency. The asset broke above its old all-time high in the previous year. However, the resistance above caused another failed test and a prolonged bearish phase.

Bitcoin broke the level yet again, but this time, the retest appears to be holding up which could mean new highs.

Bitcoin could see price discovery re-emerge if there is no resistance

Sir Templeton warned that this phase could see a different outcome from the previous highs. Past retests have also failed to reach the Bollinger Bands’ midline. This is a 20-week simple moving average on this weekly chart.

BTCUSD_2021-08-19_13-32-59

BTC is able to surpass the middle-BB in this retest.| Source: TradingView.com - BTCUSD

The current test has placed it above an average Bollinger Band. This signal can be used to buy or sell long positions.

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The last bull market saw that once Bitcoin’s price was able to stay above the SMA, the uptrend never stopped. This was also when the largest cryptocurrency market cap reached its final stages in the latest bull market.

So, is this really a new time? Bitcoin is bullish if it can overcome resistance without a successful retest.

To pursue @TonySpilotroBTCOr via The TonyTradesBTC Telegram. The content should not be construed as investment advice.

Featured image by iStockPhoto, Charts at TradingView.com




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